Kaspa’s open interest has returned to the low levels last seen in summer 2024, a period when prices were near all-time highs. Today, however, price is roughly 80% lower. On the surface, that contrast looks striking, but it says more about market participation than about leverage building up again.
In 2024, similar open-interest levels existed alongside strong spot demand and rising prices. Capital was actively rotating into Kaspa, and derivatives activity complemented a broader upward trend. Open interest wasn’t extreme, but it was supported by consistent buying in the spot market.
The current environment is different. Low open interest today reflects reduced leverage, lower speculative interest, and weaker overall risk appetite. Traders are largely on the sidelines, and there is little incentive to take aggressive directional bets. This is not a market crowded with longs or shorts, but one marked by limited participation.
This combination — deeply discounted price and low open interest — typically appears in the late bear or early accumulation phase of a cycle. Selling pressure has largely played out, leverage has been flushed, and volatility has compressed. What remains is a quieter market where conviction is low and positioning is light.
Importantly, low open interest also means the market is less sensitive to forced liquidations. Sharp liquidation cascades are less likely when leverage is absent. At the same time, it also means that price moves lack follow-through unless spot demand returns.
In practical terms, the current setup points to apathy rather than excess. The market is not overheated, but it is also not yet showing signs of renewed demand. Any sustained upside will likely require spot accumulation and real participation, with open interest rising alongside price — not ahead of it.
Until then, Kaspa remains in a base-building phase, waiting for the next catalyst that brings capital back into the market.
