Kaspa Is Testing $0.03 Support.

Kaspa is sitting on the $0.03 level, and the question for holders is a simple one: does it hold, or does it break? The price action is quiet, but the underlying data is anything but uniform. Mining metrics, whale behavior, derivatives positioning, and valuation models are each pointing in slightly different directions, which is exactly what makes the current setup worth reading carefully rather than at a glance.

Here is where the market stands and what each signal is actually telling us.

Price Is Soft, But Not Broken

KAS is trading 10.9% below its 30-day moving average and 8.3% below its 90-day, so price has been drifting under both of its main trend benchmarks. That confirms a market in a corrective phase rather than one in an uptrend that is merely pausing.

It is worth being clear about what is driving this. Kaspa's correlation to Bitcoin currently sits at 0.88, which is high. At that level, a large share of KAS's day-to-day movement is simply Bitcoin's movement passed through. The $0.03 test, in other words, is not happening in isolation from the broader market.

The cycle score of 58 out of 100 places Kaspa at a moderately advanced point in its market cycle. That is neither early-accumulation territory nor a euphoric top. It is the middle, which fits the broader picture of a market working through a range rather than trending hard in either direction.

Mining: A Growing Network, Stressed Miners

The mining data contains the clearest internal tension in the entire dataset.

On one side, the network is expanding. Hashrate has climbed to 419.6 PH/s, up 7.6% versus its 30-day average. Miners are still committing hardware and securing the chain even as price sits low.

On the other side, the economics are tough. The Puell Multiple stands at 0.54, which means miner revenue is well below its historical norm, squarely in the range where margins are squeezed. Reinforcing that, the Hash Ribbons indicator has flipped bearish, with the 30-day hashrate average crossing below the 60-day. Historically, that crossover is read as a miner capitulation signal.

The two readings do not usually sit together. A rising aggregate hashrate alongside a capitulation flag suggests that while the network total is holding up, some operators are likely under pressure beneath the surface. This is the kind of divergence worth watching, because mining stress can act as a leading indicator for the wider sector.

Whales Are Trimming, Not Fleeing

Large holders (wallets with 10 million KAS or more) have been reducing exposure, but in a measured way. Their holdings are down 1.06% over the past week and 1.97% over the past month, leaving the cohort at 6.58 billion KAS.

The pattern matters more than the magnitude. These are steady, modest reductions, not a sharp exit. Paired with a small three-day net inflow to exchanges of roughly 0.9 million KAS, the picture is one of whales lightening positions during a sideways stretch rather than either capitulating outright or aggressively buying the dip. Conviction at the top of the holder base has softened, but it has not collapsed.

Valuation Sits in a Familiar Zone

The valuation metrics describe a market that has stabilized after its correction rather than one breaking down.

The realized cap, the aggregate cost basis of all holders, sits at $608 million and has not moved over the past 30 days. A flat realized cap signals that the market is cycling through the same cohort of holders rather than drawing in fresh capital at higher prices. Nobody is rushing in, but nobody is being forced out at a loss either.

The MVRV ratio of 1.39 places the market cap ($843 million) at a 39% premium to that cost basis. That level has historically lined up with accumulation phases in prior cycles. The NUPL reading of 0.279 sits in the "optimism" band, most holders are in profit, but the modest figure shows that optimism is restrained, not euphoric.

One note on activity: on-chain transactions spiked dramatically, and the NVT ratio jumped to 95, up 43.9% from its average. A high NVT means transaction volume is growing faster than network value. That can reflect genuine utility or speculative churn; on its own it does not distinguish between the two.

Kaspa is testing $0.03 in a market that is genuinely mixed. The bearish signals cluster around mining stress, softening whale conviction, and crowded long positioning in derivatives. The constructive signals sit in valuation a flat cost basis, an MVRV level that has historically marked accumulation zones, and restrained rather than overheated optimism.

The high Bitcoin correlation means the support test will likely be settled by the broader market as much as by anything Kaspa-specific. A hold at $0.03 keeps the post-correction equilibrium intact. A break, particularly with leverage skewed long, opens room for a deeper flush before the valuation case gets a chance to play out.

For now, this is a level being defended, not a trend being established in either direction.